The influence of wind and the spatial layout of dwellings on fire spread in informal settlements in Cape Town

Fires in informal settlements are devastating to residents of these precarious urban environments. This paper highlights the use spatial metrics and wind speed direction for fire spread risk identification settlement fires Cape Town. Data on: incidents, dwelling footprints, conditions during a fire, analysed both together separately. Fire incidence data with reveals that majority occur December most destructive taking place moderate conditions. At higher speeds, distance between flame adjacent is not reduced but height is, leading radiation. Also, convective cooling at speeds increases time-to-ignition flashover dwelling. Analysis average standard deviation first nearest neighbour edge density can be used identify areas spread. A threshold approach using dwelling's range from third neighbours allow specific dwellings within which